The Real Thirteen Keys for Winning the White House

With the 2024 presidential campaign entering the homestretch, an anxious nation has once again turned to historian Allan Lichtman and his Thirteen Keys to the White House. Every four years, Lichtman predicts who will win the presidency based on whether the incumbent party has met eight of his thirteen criteria for success.

Critics, however, argue that Lichtman’s keys are subjective, opaque, and easy to retrofit for a predetermined outcome. With this in mind, we are proud to introduce the real thirteen keys—which represent rigorous, data-driven analysis and not just stuff we made up.

1. The Middle-Term Economy Key. Two of Lichtman’s original keys are dedicated to the economy: “long-term economy” and “short-term economy.” Some say Lichtman is disguising a well-established observation of political science—people vote for incumbents when the economy is good—as his own original insight. We would also like to get interpersonal clout and television appearances for this idea, so here’s another economy key.

2. The Good President Key. If the incumbent-party nominee has been a really, really good president, then it’s our professional estimation that they will probably win. We define “being a good president” as presiding over a thriving economy.

3. The “Vibe” Key. Sometimes you just pick up a vibe that someone’s gonna win an election. This key is typically assigned in late October based on the vibes we get after reviewing the most recent reports about the economy.

4. The Desire Key. To unlock this key, the candidate must have interest in becoming president. They can’t want to do something else instead, like be a fry cook or work at a record store.

5. The Money Key. Of course, the candidate with the more successful fundraising operation is able to dedicate more resources in crucial battleground states—and it also affords them the ability to pay off enterprising political pundits who would be more than willing to slip ’em a few extra keys if the price is right.

6. The Sentience Key. This key is awarded if the candidate can persuade the public that they are conscious. Not environmentally conscious or socially conscious; that has never mattered. Rather, voters love knowing that the person they elect is able to perceive the external world. For this reason, unicellular organisms rarely secure the presidency. But the upside is that they don’t really give a shit.

7. The Cute Girlfriend Key. If the incumbent party’s nominee has a girlfriend who could reasonably be rated a 6 or higher, that counts as two keys. If they’re more like in the 4 or 5 range, that counts as no keys. If they’re a total dog, subtract one key. Who is the arbiter of beauty? An independent commission. Who makes up the independent commission? Us.

8. The Wife Key. If the wife of the incumbent-party nominee finds out about the cute girlfriend, the incumbent-party nominee gets to keep their keys, but the keys will no longer unlock the front door.

9. The Synecdoche, New York Key. If a candidate has seen and can coherently recall the plot of Synecdoche, New York, subtract two keys for unrelatability. This infamously sunk Mitt Romney’s candidacy in 2012.

10. The Being Rude to a Dog Key. Since the founding of this nation, no candidate has ever won the presidency after being caught publicly being rude to a dog. Our extensive study of the American people has determined that they like dogs and don’t want a leader who refuses to engage in cuddles when all indicators would imply that it is cuddle time.

11. The Mini Golf Key. If the incumbent-party nominee wins a game of mini golf at Holey Mackerel! in Greenfield, Wisconsin, they receive one key and a coupon for 50 percent off their next visit to Holey Mackerel!

12. The Grounded Key. The American people are eager to support the candidate who will be most capable of carrying out the rigorous duties of the presidency. This is impossible if their mom has grounded them. International diplomacy depends upon the commander-in-chief’s ability to leave their room and hang out with their friends. If your party’s candidate has recently talked back to their parents or done poorly on a social studies exam, deduct one key from their candidacy.

13. The Polls Key. One little-known, minor consideration that some analysts theorize could play a role in determining the winner of the election is nationally conducted surveys that take a random sample of Americans and ask them whom they will vote for. Whoever wins in the polls receives thirteen keys—or zero, depending on who wins.